UPDATE: CORRECT - INCORRECTas always, what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. regardless of past performance in the prediction arts, this year's list is a lock. come monday morning, you can all sit back and marvel, once again, at how right-on i was. unless, of course, i'm completely wrong. if that's the case, just pretend this post never happened.
NEW THIS YEAR: due to some outstanding market research, we here at the annex have replaced the controversial "should win" pick with the more appropriate "my pick" pick. the official score will still be tallied under the "will win" picks.
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor (idiot!!)will win: paul giamatti;
cinderella man my pick: matt dillon;
crashNOTE: alright, i'm just gonna come out of the gate swinging with an upset. to start off, this year's races are b-o-r-i-n-g. but, there is no way that all of the winners are going to be the front runners or popular choices. so why not start off with acknowledging the best part about
crash? why not?
supporting actress (woo hoo!!)will win: rachel weisz;
the constant gardener my pick: rachel weisz;
the constant gardenerNOTE: with all due respect to amy adams (aka: katie from
the office (US)) for her breakout performance in the oddest of little movies,
junebug, i gotta go with weisz. i didn't see
north country so i can't speak for frances mcdormand (though she has certainly been here before) and katherine keener, while certainly worthy of the respect she is now getting for a body of thankless roles was good but dwarfed (see next category) in
capote. it comes down to the fact that i still don't get michelle williams's nom and i think rachel weisz is super-hot. that's gotta count for something, right?
*
actor (woo hoo!!)will win: phillip seymour hoffman;
capote my pick: phillip seymour hoffman;
capoteNOTE: i was wildly impressed with heath ledger's performance. wildly. david strathairn is my sentimental pick as edward r. murrow. that said, if it weren't for hoffman,
capote would not have worked...at all. but i will get to that soon enough.
actress (woo hoo!!)will win: reese witherspoon;
walk the line my pick: reese witherspoon;
walk the lineNOTE: why do i feel like
I could have put on a dress and done ANYTHING and been nominated this year? not to take away from any of the performances, but i re-fell for reese in this roll. no contest.
director (woo hoo!!)will win: ang lee;
brokeback mountain my pick: ang lee;
brokeback mountainNOTE: while
crash's paul haggis could pull off the soderbergh-ian upset by managing a wide-ranging ensemble cast, the statue is lee's to lose. his acceptance speech should be adorable.
picture (idiot!!)will win:
brokeback mountain my pick:
brokeback mountainNOTE: this is a very weak year, in my opinion. though in the time since i saw
capote, i have softened my stance. i still feel it would have been an average movie at best if not for hoffman's performance. i have come to realize that a superb acting job CAN and DOES make an entire movie like
capote great. it's just a different way of approaching greatness. my issues with
crash as a film that thinks big and executes at about 40% is also admittedly softening. not as much, but a little. that said, none of this matters because nothing is going to beat the boys from
brokeback. it's just too controversial to not win.
cinematography (double idiot!!)will win: rodrigo prieto;
brokeback mountain my pick: dion beebe;
memiors of a geishaNOTE: while the subtle yet enormous camerawork in
brokeback is absolutely deserving, i have to go with the frontrunner in the "artsy" categories for this one. i'm partly pulling for
good night but just cause it's black and white, doesn't mean it's worthy.
the man who wasn't there arguably deserved to win in 2001, but didn't...and it was better than
good night...cinema..to..graph..ic...ally speaking.
art direction (woo hoo!!)will win: john myhre & gretchen rau;
memoirs of a geisha my pick: grant major, dan hennah & simon bright;
king kong NOTE: while i think that
memoirs will sweep the "artsies,"
kong LOOKED freakin' spectacular. that's about all i will say about the big ape movie. this is not the time or place.
animated feature (woo hoo!!)will win:
wallace & gromit: the curse of the were-rabbit my pick:
wallace & gromit: the curse of the were-rabbitNOTE: if
chicken little had only been nominated....or been worth seeing...or been any good at all....this might have been a different category. as is, although i really liked
corpse bride from a cinematic standpoint, nick park is too beloved by the academy to not win.
animated short (idiot!!)will win:
9 my pick:
the mysterious geographic explorations of jasper morrelloNOTE: i love cool and edgy animation. so this is lately my favorite category...a good 3-6 months AFTER the telecast. that's about how long it takes to finally SEE all of the nominees. having only seen one, the quaint, but less than spectacular
badgered, and the trailers for 3 others, i have decided this:
9 has an amazing look and i can't wait until tim burton's feature-length version comes out.
jasper morrello is the kind of stark, fantastical imagery i can easily love, and
one man band is typical, pixar genius. point is, the one i haven't seen anything for (
the moon and son) will probably win.
live action short (woo hoo!!)will win:
six shooter my pick:
our time is upNOTE: short plays are a tough gig to get right. short films are a little easier. when a short playwright (
shooter's martin macdonagh) transfers his poignant and kinetic style to film with all the blood and morality anyone could want crammed into a tiny irish train car...you gotta hand it to him. personally, i like the thought of kevin pollack unloading years of baggage on his therapy clients (
time.)
foreign language film (woo hoo!!)will win:
tsotsi; south africa
my pick:
tsotsi; south africa
NOTE: too much buzz. what? you've never heard of it? well, that doesn't bode well for the other nominees, now does it?
documentary feature (woo hoo!!)will win:
march of the penguins my pick:
murderballNOTE: schlocky penguin sentiment aside,
march was a damn fine documentary. and with morgan "let-me-narrarate-your-movie-and-you-will-win-an-oscar" freeman narrarating, well, there you go.
documentary short (idiot!!)will win:
god sleeps in rwanda my pick:
god sleeps in rwandaNOTE: i hate to put all my eggs in one basket on such a volatile category that can effectively go any way, but who cares. if you've hung with me this far, you deserve,as well, to pull for the happiness-in-spite-of-devastation subject of
rwanda.
costume design (woo hoo!!)will win: colleen atwood;
memoirs of a geisha my pick: colleen atwood;
memoirs of a geishaNOTE: ms. atwood is the tyrannosaurus rex of costume design oscars. not sure what that means exactly, but it doesn't matter. there's an outside chance that
charlie and the chocolate factory's team could squeak in and steal it. very outside.
make-up (woo hoo!!)will win: howard berger & tami lane;
the chronicles of narnia: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe my pick: howard berger & tami lane;
the chronicles of narnia: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe NOTE: once again, if only george lucas were nominated for original screenplay this year (a lock if he were) i might not feel bad about snubbing him for this one. but he wasn't. and i don't.
original score (idiot!!)will win: john williams;
memoirs of a geisha my pick: gustavo santaolalla;
brokeback mountainNOTE: it was a beautiful, departure of a score for the 4,000-time oscar winner, williams. but to me, the simple, haunting guitar on
brokeback soars above everything else.
original song (idiot!!)will win: "travelin' thru" from
transamerica my pick: "in the deep" from
crashNOTE: who doesn't want to see dolly parton win this thing? it's a crowd pleaser and an ironic nod to the "alternative lifestyle" theme that will permeate this year's show. however, "deep" captures
crash's tone perfectly.
film editing (woo hoo!!)will win:
crash my pick:
crashNOTE: intertwining story arcs. one (mostly) coherent movie. nothing else should win this. except for maybe one of the other four nominees.
sound editing (woo hoo!!)will win:
king kong my pick:
memiors of a geishaNOTE: i have no note here. i'm getting really tired.
sound mixing (idiot!!)will win:
walk the line my pick:
walk the lineNOTE: i won't jump on the bandwagon of "since
ray won this last year, the muisc biopic will win this year too." everyone has been beating that to death. BUT, since i DID pick
ray for the same reasons last year, i will be a homer and go with
line anyway.
visual effects (woo hoo!!)will win:
king kong my pick:
king kongNOTE: again, it looked fantastic. there was nothing spectacular about
narnia and
war of the worlds was creepily cool, but it comes down to pedigree...and a big freakin' monkey.
adapted screenplay (woo hoo!!)will win: larry mcmurtry & diana ossana;
brokeback mountain my pick: larry mcmurtry & diana ossana;
brokeback mountainNOTE: for lack of seeing
a history of violence i have to say that
brokeback is the obvious choice here. of the VERY FEW things that didn't settle well with me about this movie, the script was not one of them.
original screenplay (woo hoo!!)will win: paul haggis & bobby moresco;
crash my pick: george clooney & grant heslov;
good night and good luckNOTE: i accept that the critics and (probably) the academy are in love with the script for
crash. it was good. but the understated and pitch-perfect
gn&gl was more my kind of dark horse.
enjoy the show, folks. i'm out. and remember, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* = see also angelina jolie, jennifer connelly, halle berry, gwyneth paltrow, charlize theron, etc.