drumroll, please.........and........OSCAR!
UPDATE: CORRECT - INCORRECT
as always, what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. regardless of past performance in the prediction arts, this year's list is a lock. come monday morning, you can all sit back and marvel, once again, at how right-on i was. unless, of course, i'm completely wrong. if that's the case, just pretend this post never happened.
NEW THIS YEAR: due to some outstanding market research, we here at the annex have replaced the controversial "should win" pick with the more appropriate "my pick" pick. the official score will still be tallied under the "will win" picks.
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor (idiot!!)
will win: paul giamatti; cinderella man
my pick: matt dillon; crash
NOTE: alright, i'm just gonna come out of the gate swinging with an upset. to start off, this year's races are b-o-r-i-n-g. but, there is no way that all of the winners are going to be the front runners or popular choices. so why not start off with acknowledging the best part about crash? why not?
supporting actress (woo hoo!!)
will win: rachel weisz; the constant gardener
my pick: rachel weisz; the constant gardener
NOTE: with all due respect to amy adams (aka: katie from the office (US)) for her breakout performance in the oddest of little movies, junebug, i gotta go with weisz. i didn't see north country so i can't speak for frances mcdormand (though she has certainly been here before) and katherine keener, while certainly worthy of the respect she is now getting for a body of thankless roles was good but dwarfed (see next category) in capote. it comes down to the fact that i still don't get michelle williams's nom and i think rachel weisz is super-hot. that's gotta count for something, right? *
actor (woo hoo!!)
will win: phillip seymour hoffman; capote
my pick: phillip seymour hoffman; capote
NOTE: i was wildly impressed with heath ledger's performance. wildly. david strathairn is my sentimental pick as edward r. murrow. that said, if it weren't for hoffman, capote would not have worked...at all. but i will get to that soon enough.
actress (woo hoo!!)
will win: reese witherspoon; walk the line
my pick: reese witherspoon; walk the line
NOTE: why do i feel like I could have put on a dress and done ANYTHING and been nominated this year? not to take away from any of the performances, but i re-fell for reese in this roll. no contest.
director (woo hoo!!)
will win: ang lee; brokeback mountain
my pick: ang lee; brokeback mountain
NOTE: while crash's paul haggis could pull off the soderbergh-ian upset by managing a wide-ranging ensemble cast, the statue is lee's to lose. his acceptance speech should be adorable.
picture (idiot!!)
will win: brokeback mountain
my pick: brokeback mountain
NOTE: this is a very weak year, in my opinion. though in the time since i saw capote, i have softened my stance. i still feel it would have been an average movie at best if not for hoffman's performance. i have come to realize that a superb acting job CAN and DOES make an entire movie like capote great. it's just a different way of approaching greatness. my issues with crash as a film that thinks big and executes at about 40% is also admittedly softening. not as much, but a little. that said, none of this matters because nothing is going to beat the boys from brokeback. it's just too controversial to not win.
cinematography (double idiot!!)
will win: rodrigo prieto; brokeback mountain
my pick: dion beebe; memiors of a geisha
NOTE: while the subtle yet enormous camerawork in brokeback is absolutely deserving, i have to go with the frontrunner in the "artsy" categories for this one. i'm partly pulling for good night but just cause it's black and white, doesn't mean it's worthy. the man who wasn't there arguably deserved to win in 2001, but didn't...and it was better than good night...cinema..to..graph..ic...ally speaking.
art direction (woo hoo!!)
will win: john myhre & gretchen rau; memoirs of a geisha
my pick: grant major, dan hennah & simon bright; king kong
NOTE: while i think that memoirs will sweep the "artsies," kong LOOKED freakin' spectacular. that's about all i will say about the big ape movie. this is not the time or place.
animated feature (woo hoo!!)
will win: wallace & gromit: the curse of the were-rabbit
my pick: wallace & gromit: the curse of the were-rabbit
NOTE: if chicken little had only been nominated....or been worth seeing...or been any good at all....this might have been a different category. as is, although i really liked corpse bride from a cinematic standpoint, nick park is too beloved by the academy to not win.
animated short (idiot!!)
will win: 9
my pick: the mysterious geographic explorations of jasper morrello
NOTE: i love cool and edgy animation. so this is lately my favorite category...a good 3-6 months AFTER the telecast. that's about how long it takes to finally SEE all of the nominees. having only seen one, the quaint, but less than spectacular badgered, and the trailers for 3 others, i have decided this: 9 has an amazing look and i can't wait until tim burton's feature-length version comes out. jasper morrello is the kind of stark, fantastical imagery i can easily love, and one man band is typical, pixar genius. point is, the one i haven't seen anything for (the moon and son) will probably win.
live action short (woo hoo!!)
will win: six shooter
my pick: our time is up
NOTE: short plays are a tough gig to get right. short films are a little easier. when a short playwright (shooter's martin macdonagh) transfers his poignant and kinetic style to film with all the blood and morality anyone could want crammed into a tiny irish train car...you gotta hand it to him. personally, i like the thought of kevin pollack unloading years of baggage on his therapy clients (time.)
foreign language film (woo hoo!!)
will win: tsotsi; south africa
my pick: tsotsi; south africa
NOTE: too much buzz. what? you've never heard of it? well, that doesn't bode well for the other nominees, now does it?
documentary feature (woo hoo!!)
will win: march of the penguins
my pick: murderball
NOTE: schlocky penguin sentiment aside, march was a damn fine documentary. and with morgan "let-me-narrarate-your-movie-and-you-will-win-an-oscar" freeman narrarating, well, there you go.
documentary short (idiot!!)
will win: god sleeps in rwanda
my pick: god sleeps in rwanda
NOTE: i hate to put all my eggs in one basket on such a volatile category that can effectively go any way, but who cares. if you've hung with me this far, you deserve,as well, to pull for the happiness-in-spite-of-devastation subject of rwanda.
costume design (woo hoo!!)
will win: colleen atwood; memoirs of a geisha
my pick: colleen atwood; memoirs of a geisha
NOTE: ms. atwood is the tyrannosaurus rex of costume design oscars. not sure what that means exactly, but it doesn't matter. there's an outside chance that charlie and the chocolate factory's team could squeak in and steal it. very outside.
make-up (woo hoo!!)
will win: howard berger & tami lane; the chronicles of narnia: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe
my pick: howard berger & tami lane; the chronicles of narnia: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe
NOTE: once again, if only george lucas were nominated for original screenplay this year (a lock if he were) i might not feel bad about snubbing him for this one. but he wasn't. and i don't.
original score (idiot!!)
will win: john williams; memoirs of a geisha
my pick: gustavo santaolalla; brokeback mountain
NOTE: it was a beautiful, departure of a score for the 4,000-time oscar winner, williams. but to me, the simple, haunting guitar on brokeback soars above everything else.
original song (idiot!!)
will win: "travelin' thru" from transamerica
my pick: "in the deep" from crash
NOTE: who doesn't want to see dolly parton win this thing? it's a crowd pleaser and an ironic nod to the "alternative lifestyle" theme that will permeate this year's show. however, "deep" captures crash's tone perfectly.
film editing (woo hoo!!)
will win: crash
my pick: crash
NOTE: intertwining story arcs. one (mostly) coherent movie. nothing else should win this. except for maybe one of the other four nominees.
sound editing (woo hoo!!)
will win: king kong
my pick: memiors of a geisha
NOTE: i have no note here. i'm getting really tired.
sound mixing (idiot!!)
will win: walk the line
my pick: walk the line
NOTE: i won't jump on the bandwagon of "since ray won this last year, the muisc biopic will win this year too." everyone has been beating that to death. BUT, since i DID pick ray for the same reasons last year, i will be a homer and go with line anyway.
visual effects (woo hoo!!)
will win: king kong
my pick: king kong
NOTE: again, it looked fantastic. there was nothing spectacular about narnia and war of the worlds was creepily cool, but it comes down to pedigree...and a big freakin' monkey.
adapted screenplay (woo hoo!!)
will win: larry mcmurtry & diana ossana; brokeback mountain
my pick: larry mcmurtry & diana ossana; brokeback mountain
NOTE: for lack of seeing a history of violence i have to say that brokeback is the obvious choice here. of the VERY FEW things that didn't settle well with me about this movie, the script was not one of them.
original screenplay (woo hoo!!)
will win: paul haggis & bobby moresco; crash
my pick: george clooney & grant heslov; good night and good luck
NOTE: i accept that the critics and (probably) the academy are in love with the script for crash. it was good. but the understated and pitch-perfect gn&gl was more my kind of dark horse.
enjoy the show, folks. i'm out. and remember, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* = see also angelina jolie, jennifer connelly, halle berry, gwyneth paltrow, charlize theron, etc.
as always, what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. regardless of past performance in the prediction arts, this year's list is a lock. come monday morning, you can all sit back and marvel, once again, at how right-on i was. unless, of course, i'm completely wrong. if that's the case, just pretend this post never happened.
NEW THIS YEAR: due to some outstanding market research, we here at the annex have replaced the controversial "should win" pick with the more appropriate "my pick" pick. the official score will still be tallied under the "will win" picks.
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor (idiot!!)
will win: paul giamatti; cinderella man
my pick: matt dillon; crash
NOTE: alright, i'm just gonna come out of the gate swinging with an upset. to start off, this year's races are b-o-r-i-n-g. but, there is no way that all of the winners are going to be the front runners or popular choices. so why not start off with acknowledging the best part about crash? why not?
supporting actress (woo hoo!!)
will win: rachel weisz; the constant gardener
my pick: rachel weisz; the constant gardener
NOTE: with all due respect to amy adams (aka: katie from the office (US)) for her breakout performance in the oddest of little movies, junebug, i gotta go with weisz. i didn't see north country so i can't speak for frances mcdormand (though she has certainly been here before) and katherine keener, while certainly worthy of the respect she is now getting for a body of thankless roles was good but dwarfed (see next category) in capote. it comes down to the fact that i still don't get michelle williams's nom and i think rachel weisz is super-hot. that's gotta count for something, right? *
actor (woo hoo!!)
will win: phillip seymour hoffman; capote
my pick: phillip seymour hoffman; capote
NOTE: i was wildly impressed with heath ledger's performance. wildly. david strathairn is my sentimental pick as edward r. murrow. that said, if it weren't for hoffman, capote would not have worked...at all. but i will get to that soon enough.
actress (woo hoo!!)
will win: reese witherspoon; walk the line
my pick: reese witherspoon; walk the line
NOTE: why do i feel like I could have put on a dress and done ANYTHING and been nominated this year? not to take away from any of the performances, but i re-fell for reese in this roll. no contest.
director (woo hoo!!)
will win: ang lee; brokeback mountain
my pick: ang lee; brokeback mountain
NOTE: while crash's paul haggis could pull off the soderbergh-ian upset by managing a wide-ranging ensemble cast, the statue is lee's to lose. his acceptance speech should be adorable.
picture (idiot!!)
will win: brokeback mountain
my pick: brokeback mountain
NOTE: this is a very weak year, in my opinion. though in the time since i saw capote, i have softened my stance. i still feel it would have been an average movie at best if not for hoffman's performance. i have come to realize that a superb acting job CAN and DOES make an entire movie like capote great. it's just a different way of approaching greatness. my issues with crash as a film that thinks big and executes at about 40% is also admittedly softening. not as much, but a little. that said, none of this matters because nothing is going to beat the boys from brokeback. it's just too controversial to not win.
cinematography (double idiot!!)
will win: rodrigo prieto; brokeback mountain
my pick: dion beebe; memiors of a geisha
NOTE: while the subtle yet enormous camerawork in brokeback is absolutely deserving, i have to go with the frontrunner in the "artsy" categories for this one. i'm partly pulling for good night but just cause it's black and white, doesn't mean it's worthy. the man who wasn't there arguably deserved to win in 2001, but didn't...and it was better than good night...cinema..to..graph..ic...ally speaking.
art direction (woo hoo!!)
will win: john myhre & gretchen rau; memoirs of a geisha
my pick: grant major, dan hennah & simon bright; king kong
NOTE: while i think that memoirs will sweep the "artsies," kong LOOKED freakin' spectacular. that's about all i will say about the big ape movie. this is not the time or place.
animated feature (woo hoo!!)
will win: wallace & gromit: the curse of the were-rabbit
my pick: wallace & gromit: the curse of the were-rabbit
NOTE: if chicken little had only been nominated....or been worth seeing...or been any good at all....this might have been a different category. as is, although i really liked corpse bride from a cinematic standpoint, nick park is too beloved by the academy to not win.
animated short (idiot!!)
will win: 9
my pick: the mysterious geographic explorations of jasper morrello
NOTE: i love cool and edgy animation. so this is lately my favorite category...a good 3-6 months AFTER the telecast. that's about how long it takes to finally SEE all of the nominees. having only seen one, the quaint, but less than spectacular badgered, and the trailers for 3 others, i have decided this: 9 has an amazing look and i can't wait until tim burton's feature-length version comes out. jasper morrello is the kind of stark, fantastical imagery i can easily love, and one man band is typical, pixar genius. point is, the one i haven't seen anything for (the moon and son) will probably win.
live action short (woo hoo!!)
will win: six shooter
my pick: our time is up
NOTE: short plays are a tough gig to get right. short films are a little easier. when a short playwright (shooter's martin macdonagh) transfers his poignant and kinetic style to film with all the blood and morality anyone could want crammed into a tiny irish train car...you gotta hand it to him. personally, i like the thought of kevin pollack unloading years of baggage on his therapy clients (time.)
foreign language film (woo hoo!!)
will win: tsotsi; south africa
my pick: tsotsi; south africa
NOTE: too much buzz. what? you've never heard of it? well, that doesn't bode well for the other nominees, now does it?
documentary feature (woo hoo!!)
will win: march of the penguins
my pick: murderball
NOTE: schlocky penguin sentiment aside, march was a damn fine documentary. and with morgan "let-me-narrarate-your-movie-and-you-will-win-an-oscar" freeman narrarating, well, there you go.
documentary short (idiot!!)
will win: god sleeps in rwanda
my pick: god sleeps in rwanda
NOTE: i hate to put all my eggs in one basket on such a volatile category that can effectively go any way, but who cares. if you've hung with me this far, you deserve,as well, to pull for the happiness-in-spite-of-devastation subject of rwanda.
costume design (woo hoo!!)
will win: colleen atwood; memoirs of a geisha
my pick: colleen atwood; memoirs of a geisha
NOTE: ms. atwood is the tyrannosaurus rex of costume design oscars. not sure what that means exactly, but it doesn't matter. there's an outside chance that charlie and the chocolate factory's team could squeak in and steal it. very outside.
make-up (woo hoo!!)
will win: howard berger & tami lane; the chronicles of narnia: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe
my pick: howard berger & tami lane; the chronicles of narnia: the lion, the witch and the wardrobe
NOTE: once again, if only george lucas were nominated for original screenplay this year (a lock if he were) i might not feel bad about snubbing him for this one. but he wasn't. and i don't.
original score (idiot!!)
will win: john williams; memoirs of a geisha
my pick: gustavo santaolalla; brokeback mountain
NOTE: it was a beautiful, departure of a score for the 4,000-time oscar winner, williams. but to me, the simple, haunting guitar on brokeback soars above everything else.
original song (idiot!!)
will win: "travelin' thru" from transamerica
my pick: "in the deep" from crash
NOTE: who doesn't want to see dolly parton win this thing? it's a crowd pleaser and an ironic nod to the "alternative lifestyle" theme that will permeate this year's show. however, "deep" captures crash's tone perfectly.
film editing (woo hoo!!)
will win: crash
my pick: crash
NOTE: intertwining story arcs. one (mostly) coherent movie. nothing else should win this. except for maybe one of the other four nominees.
sound editing (woo hoo!!)
will win: king kong
my pick: memiors of a geisha
NOTE: i have no note here. i'm getting really tired.
sound mixing (idiot!!)
will win: walk the line
my pick: walk the line
NOTE: i won't jump on the bandwagon of "since ray won this last year, the muisc biopic will win this year too." everyone has been beating that to death. BUT, since i DID pick ray for the same reasons last year, i will be a homer and go with line anyway.
visual effects (woo hoo!!)
will win: king kong
my pick: king kong
NOTE: again, it looked fantastic. there was nothing spectacular about narnia and war of the worlds was creepily cool, but it comes down to pedigree...and a big freakin' monkey.
adapted screenplay (woo hoo!!)
will win: larry mcmurtry & diana ossana; brokeback mountain
my pick: larry mcmurtry & diana ossana; brokeback mountain
NOTE: for lack of seeing a history of violence i have to say that brokeback is the obvious choice here. of the VERY FEW things that didn't settle well with me about this movie, the script was not one of them.
original screenplay (woo hoo!!)
will win: paul haggis & bobby moresco; crash
my pick: george clooney & grant heslov; good night and good luck
NOTE: i accept that the critics and (probably) the academy are in love with the script for crash. it was good. but the understated and pitch-perfect gn&gl was more my kind of dark horse.
enjoy the show, folks. i'm out. and remember, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* = see also angelina jolie, jennifer connelly, halle berry, gwyneth paltrow, charlize theron, etc.
posted by cade at 2:46 PM
13 Comments:
Thought you might be interested in the betting odds:
Best Picture:
Brokeback 1 to 6
GNGL 16 to 1
Munich 16 to 1
Crash 9 to 2
Capote 25 to 1
Best Actor:
Hoffman 1 to 8
Ledger 7 to 1
Phoenix 7 to 1
Strathairn 25 to 1
Howard 30 to 1
Best Actress:
Reece 1 to 5
Huffman 5 to 2
Knightley 30 to 1
Dench 30 to 1
Theron 25 to 1
Best Director:
Ang Lee 1 to 12 (wow - meaning you have to risk 120 to win 10)
Clooney 8 to 1
Spielberg 14 to 1
Haggis 12 to 1
Miller 25 to 1
Those are some landslide odds if you ask me.
"never tell me the odds."
thanks man, i can always count on you for my vegas line. like i said, some of the races are BORING this year.
you have an actual choice for 'sound editing' ... i think that's a category i usually take a bathroom break in.
if your picks win, do you get a prize?
no prize this time. that's not to say it hasn't happened in the past.
you must be the world's fastest pee-er, cause sound editing only takes like 3 seconds to announce.
...well, i have had lots of practice.
I don't know, I'm a Crash fan for best picture. Crash speaks more to our time about racism and should have a longer resounding social impact than brokeback. It also portrayed it in a more interesting format that allows diverse people to take ownership in the movie. In the end, although having emotional impact, brokeback is just a cliche or social pun - the gay cowboy - which like it or not will isolate itself from viewers to take personal ownership into the movie.
Also, as a side note, you are formally invited to see some jewelry work I will have on display at the Arts Incubator during March. If you weren't across the country, I would meet you at the First Friday gallery crawl. Later.
did you see brokeback? the whole "gay cowboy" as the movie's sole identity is a misnomer. to me, it is a movie about two people whose lives are screwed up and their seeking for justification in any way they can find it.
i'm not disagreeing with you about crash, although, i don't believe it said anything groundbreaking. i just don't see it as a better movie.
besides, the oscars shouldn't be about social impact. they should be about the art of film. not saying they haven't tried that trick before.
oh, and word up about the jewelry. best of luck with that.
man, i miss gallery crawl.
...not only how the character's screwed up but how their relationship caused ripples that affected their families, friends, coworkers, etc... people don't live in bubbles where there actions don't touch others. No matter which side of the the homosexuality debate you stand on, you can see that their hidden relationship (and how it was dealt with over the years) negatively affected the people in their lives whether they ever knew the truth of the situation, or not.
Okay, so you’re absolutely right, I mis-spoke since I haven’t seen Brokeback Mt. I guess what I was doing is what I do in the classroom quite a bit, judging project ideas based on description and theme (before students start a month long project). I knew from reviews that it had a lot more substantial themes involved, such as lives affecting lives, families and searching for acceptance or belonging. I think what I was trying to say was that if I were a movie producer and I was just pitched this movie, I would have thought that by combining the concept of gay issues (even though not quite in the same way as people usually think about in our culture) and cowboys I would have thought this would have trivialized the overall intent due to societies jokes and ridicule of the “gay cowboy” idea long before this movie was made. Could this movie get across the same ideas of destroying relationship, searching for acceptance, internal struggle, etc if the action would have been drinking, or a different heterosexual relationship? My guess would be that this movie would then fall into a long line of typical movies that have done the same thing; which then as a movie producer I also would have denies the project.
Well, safe to say, good thing I’m not a producer because this film has done well. These comments are also made just based on a description of the story line and themes, not based on the art of portraying the story. So okay, now you can tell me to shut-up and quite talking until I see the movie, and your right I accept that. Talk to you later.
actually, the funny thing is that (if i read it right) that the movie hasn't done that well at the box office at all.
you're absolutely right about all of the stuff you said. it's a bigger "pop-culture reference" than it is a movie. the buzz around it is for all the wrong reasons and that is something that will not change.
i would never tell you shut up, bri. we don't talk enough as it is.
word.
hello Cade
My once per year comments on your blog...
supporting- I do think Clooney will get it. But, I totaly understand Giamatti. Too many times Oscar has given its Oscars based upon guilt from the previous year.
As for the highly overrated Crash, I do think Dillon is deserving as the best part of the film (Cheadle was great, but when is he not).
supporting actress- I am assuming you did not see Junebug. Her performance was superior in all ways to Weisz, but you do have The Weisz Crush (which many men in their 30s do- mine acknowledged).
I do think Weisz will probably win, but do not be surprised by an upset by Adams.
If Williams gets it, look for the Brokeback Sweep.
Actress- you are right, but an upset by Felicity would be great. They totally F-ed up this category. Did you see Upside of Anger (how did Joan Allen not get nominated)? Insane. I think she could have won if she had been nominated!
Actor- finally acknowledging Hoffman, even if the performance completely freaked me out. I think there should be 2 categories (1 for being based on a real person and the other for a fictional rep). You cannot compare these 2 types of acting.
Director- yeah, Lee will get it, unless the Academy pulls its typical stunt and gives it to an actor.
Best Picture- Yes, Out of Montana.. I mean the Gay Patient will win. Ohhhh, a typically overwraught dramatic love story of inhuman dialogue (speeching)about star crossed lovers who can never be happy and together because of societal norms WINS AGAIN!
yippy- but since it is about gay guys it is edgy. I HAVE SEEN THIS FILM when Scorsese made it as a period piece with Winona Ryder and every other time it has been filmed. UGH
Enough.
Best films of the year are never even nominated! I would not bother with these nominees and hold over til next year.
Capote
Crash could be an upset but it is good, not great (wait, isn't that what all Oscar winners are?). You, unlike everyone else besides me are totally right about. I would say it is 55% good though.
I will come back in a little while for the rest.
hey rick,
thanks for stopping by.
confession time: i have not syriana and while i have no doubt that clooney's performance is stellar, i still can't see him as anything but danny ocean/george clooney (even in good night and good luck all i saw was clooney...good job not withstanding). i would be fine with him winning, i just couldn't pick him due to the fact that i have no frame of reference.
i DID see junebug. i can't really put my finger on it. i liked it. i loved her performance. it didn't shine for me, though. again, i have no defense of this or rational argument, it just didn't.
i have certain friends who believe felicity huffman will win simply because of the "activist sweep" this year. haven't seen transamerica, but i would imagine that kind of role would be right up the academy's alley. we'll see.
i am so with you on the two acting oscars (sort of, it obviously would never happen) this same argument was had last year in regard to jamie foxx and cate blanchett. both great performances...just totatlly different schools of acting.
good thoughts man. party on.
Post a Comment
<< Home