academy award predictions '07

it's that time again.

UPDATE: CORRECT - INCORRECT

what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. unlike past years, i am so certain of this year's picks that i will buy each of my readers a puppy* for every category i manage to "mis-predict." sit back and enjoy the wonderment. and in case you were wondering just how many times i am going to type out borat: cultural learnings of america for make benefit glorious nation of kazakhstan in it's entirety, the answer is: one.

NEW THIS YEAR: the official "will win" and "my pick" tallies have been unceremoniously abolished. this year, you simply get my take on the category and who will, without a shadow of a doubt, win it.

(warning: contains possible spoilers)

here we go:

supporting actor - i will avoid my sentimental favorite, alan "how have i not won an oscar yet" arkin. i love everything he does and sunshine is far from an exception. i would love it but i don't think he will win. it's a two horse race in my book between marky mark and axl foley. but, while wahlberg certainly shined in a movie filled with knock-out performances, the academy loves a comeback. murphy will, though somewhat undeservedly (for me anyway), walk away with the statue.
winner: eddie murphy; dreamgirls (idiot!!) (but yay!)


supporting actress - a 10-year-old, a japanese deaf-mute, a mexican nanny and cate blanchett. certainly all deserving (especially kikuchi in babel; my darkhorse..if i had those) but none will topple the american idol-reject-turned-diva found in hudson. say what you want, sister flat out rocked. you go, girl. wow, i apologize for that.
winner: jennifer hudson; dreamgirls (woo hoo!!)


actor - i saw ZERO of the movies nominated. all i have is the buzz. that most precious of all intangibles. and despite what certain neighbors of this blog say, the winner will, unquestionably and beyond any doubt be the ever-deserving, leonardo dicaprio.

just kidding.
winner: forest whitaker; the last king of scotland (woo hoo!!)


actress - as much as i love seeing meryl, kate and dame judy get nominated for ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING THEY EVER DO, and since penélope cruz is still weird to me, this would tend to be a lock of a category. all hail the queen.
winner: helen mirren; the queen (woo hoo!!)


director - for the love of all that is good and holy (not to mention raw and bloody) in the universe, just give marty the damn statue.
winner: matrin scorcese; the departed (woo hoo!!)


picture - don't be surprised if little miss sunshine pulls a "shakespeare in love" and upsets the whole balance of the universe. but i am a realist, so i will take the (hopefully) safe road.
winner: the departed (woo hoo!!)


cinematography - and this year's heavyweight battle category goes to...achievment in cinematography. i only saw two of these and honestly would not be surprised if i missed the best. dahlia intrigued the heck out of me, but that kind of stylized hollywood is far from original. the prestige and the illusionist both looked great, but the race comes down to pan's labyrinth and children of men. and given the accolades it has already received this year, i will give children the edge.
winner: emmanuel lubezki; children of men (idiot!!)


art direction - (n) - a dumb question or response. something one shouldn't even have to think about. - urbandictionary.com's definition of "no brainer."
winner: eugenio caballero & pilar revuelta; pan's labyrinth (woo hoo!!)


animated feature - crushingly dissappointed that everyone's hero wasn't nominated, i'm going to have to go with pixar. they deserve to win one of these years. besides, who ISN'T sick of penguins?
winner: cars (idiot!!)


animated short - a down year compared to the last few...stylistically anyway. we have three cgi standards, one beautifully hand drawn heartstring tugger and one that just looks like it should be on saturday morning after arthur. with a lack of edgy style this year the question is do the always humorous antics of cgi animals (ice age's scrat in no time for nuts) win out over simple stories of hope (the little matchgirl)? not really sure. but for brevity sake, i will say "no."
winner: the little matchgirl (idiot!!)


live action short - trust me on this one, guys. i am an expert.
winner: éramos pocos (idiot!!)


foreign language film - i have gone this far without a major upset, so here goes. pan's labyrinth may have gotten the exposure, but lives has the kind of pre-reunification-berlin human drama that creatures who see through their hands just can't match.
winner: the lives of others; germany (woo hoo!!)


documentary feature - i'm just speculating here. we have a hollywood with an obvious liberal bent and a environmental doc sporting an obvious liberal agenda? easy pick. worth it entirely if al gore gets to deliver an acceptance speech. oh, the comedy.
winner: an inconvenient truth (woo hoo!!)


documentary short - AIDS is depressing. trash is fun. look for recycled life to edge the blood of yingzhou district...or not. whatever.
winner: recycled life (idiot!!)


costume design - i don't really care this year. it strikes me that a movie about fashion is just too easy of a target. i like the chinese stuff usually, but have heard very little about golden flower as far as costumes. let's just go with the big, fluffy period piece.
winner: milena canonero; marie antionette (woo hoo!!)


make-up - click?!?! hahaha! see 'art direction' above.
winner: david martí & montse ribé; pan's labyrinth (woo hoo!!)


original score - while thomas newman has been criminally overlooked for years, i have a feeling that the good german won't be his meal ticket. i hope i am wrong (hey, if marty can shake it this year, why not?) two other favorites of mine, phillip glass (notes on a scandal) and gustavo santolalla (babel) are also in the running but i have the feeling that the whimsical and solid score from the queen will take this one.
winner: alexandre desplat; the queen (idiot!!)


original song - with the absence of a power house like "it's hard out here for a pimp" this year, there is really only one question to ask: if you tend to cancel yourself out if you get nominated twice in the same category, what happens when you get nominated THREE times? my guess is, you win.
winner: "listen" from dreamgirls (idiot!!)


film editing - NOT flags of our fathers that's for dang sure. to me, this is a toss up as i only saw two of the films. none of them would surprise me, i have to pick one, so i will go with the one with the multiple storylines. that's always tricky to pull off.
winner: stephen mirrione & douglas crise; babel (idiot!!)


sound editing leave it to the academy to overlook real quality work for some overblown popcorn movie. not saying pirates isn't deserving, but anyone who saw letters from iwo jima on the big screen knows that bombs echoing off of cliffs beats swords clanging any day.
winner: letters from iwo jima (woo hoo!!)


sound mixing - i'm telling you, people, despite what king kong had to say about it last year, musicals or musically themed movies should alway be considered the front runners in this category. stupid monkey.
winner: dreamgirls (woo hoo!!)


visual effects superman was "eh." poseidon was...not seen by me. that leaves pirates:dmc. i'm okay with that winning.
winner: pirates of the caribbean: dead man's chest (woo hoo!!)


adapted screenplay - still scratching my head to figure out how a mostly (albeit brilliantly) improvised film such as borat counts as "adapted," and while i do hear great things about children of men, i didn't see it, so i'll stick with the odds-on favorite. but just you watch, notes on a scandal will pull the upset despite what i say.
winner: william monahan; the departed (woo hoo!!)


original screenplay perhaps some of my japanese-speaking friends or more proficient spanish speakers (or both? hello, ryan) could help me out with letters from iwo jima or pan's labyrinth (as well as most of babel for that matter) as far as the dialogue in them goes. but if we are looking at story and character development, nothing will top my favorite movie of last year. it may have been at times cliche or slightly corny...but it was entirely human in it's beauty and brokeness. besides, any time a first timer can win...a little bit of hope rises up in hearts of all the struggling writers out there.
winner: michael arndt; little miss sunshine (woo hoo!!)




misc thoughts:
-i'm unashamedly okay with ellen hosting.
-i saw a lot of movies this year and still feel woefully underprepared.
-i really am just not that excited about this year. i hope it's at least entertaining.

that's it. i can't think of anything else to say. i'll be taping the amazing race if anyone wants to join me afterward. peace. and as always, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'



* = this guarantee will NOT be honored. puppies are smelly and lame.

extremely. loud. curse word.

in television news:

Here's a bet there won't be any Beatles songs on the next "Dancing With the Stars." ABC announced Wednesday that Paul McCartney's estranged wife, Heather Mills, will be among the competitors.

Mills will be the first contestant with an artificial limb to compete on the series, which returns for its fourth season March 19. She lost the leg in a motorcycle accident in 1993.

Olympian Apolo Anton Ohno, boxer Laila Ali, former basketball star Clyde Drexler and actor Vincent Pastore, who played gangster Salvatore "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero on "The Sopranos," are also in the cast.

--------

Actor and former country star Billy Ray Cyrus, former 'N Sync member Joey Fatone, Miss USA 2004 Shandi Finnessey, former "Entertainment Tonight" host Leeza Gibbons, model Paulina Porizkova and former "Beverly Hills, 90210" star Ian Ziering round out the cast.


this time it's gone too far.

i will not watch this show. i will not watch this show. i will not watch...

for my commuter friends

a nice glimpse at the improvements at our lovely north station.



and some of the same old ridiculousness.

ingredients for an awesome day

1) ice storm ---> check

2) fall on ice at work. jack up ankle --->check

3) get in a car wreck on way home from work ---> check

i'm going to bed.

2 quick notes about the storm

ok, so i am not really interested in going on and on and on and on and on about this storm that is hitting us right now....other than to say these two things:

1) this is by far the strangest damn weather i have ever seen. from 15° and snowing to 31° and sleeting to 32° and "raining." i mean, it is absolutely pouring slush. literally raining SLUSH! and it will all freeze tonight. which will be very fun considering the streets are flowing with frozen slush-water.

which leads me to...

2) i have found that there is nothing more humorous than new england plow drivers. there are usually 2 to 3 for every normal car out and none of them can drive. it's like watching a bunch of drunken frat boys drive go-carts around on an ice rink.

and it is doubly funny today considering the only thing they are "plowing" right now is large puddles of semi-frozen water.

oh great...a free, crappy magazine

so, i got this magazine in the mail yesterday:



that's right, i am the lucky recipient of a free copy of complex magazine: a mark eckō production. the "men's guide to consuming culture."

i'm so lucky. i mean what did i do before i was able to read about what paris hilton's "b.f.f." has to say about sex, lies and videotapes? or about "how to break up: dump with style"?

where has this stellar publication been all my life?

oh, and it's actually TWO magazines in one. on the flipside we have this:



so it might has SOME redemptive qualities about it...but mostly, it's about shoes. lots and lots of shoes. why not send me tommy hilfiger presents gossip magazine?

what did i ever do to deserve this quality periodical? and more importantly...will it show up again next month?

the answer, i can only fear, is "probably."

a word about anna nicole

no real comment about this story. the whole thing is a circus.

this article proves it:

Zsa Zsa's husband: I might be baby's dad

my mom would be so proud

so, i just returned from the great city of memphis* for an isolated week of work/catching up/general merriment with my friends at giant-global-financial-services-institution. and as is usually the case, most of the non-work related details of said week are not suitable for print in this space.

however, i do feel the need to share with all of you the very special award i received last night at the appreciation dinner. in a new custom, the powers that be have started "awarding" us with certificates to honor an inside joke, a random personality trait or just a general, humorous observation about each of us on the core team.

well, last night, i got this:


that's right, one of my teammates has decided to make it his mission to go ahead and "out" me.

i don't really feel that i NEED to explain this, but i will anyway. there were several comments made or stories told this week that included a few of the following:

1) a story about me picking out "a really good" pair of shoes for a female teammate in england after the oddest of luggage mishaps. (in reality, it was the helpful store clerk who picked the shoes...i just bought them)

2) a comment i made about someone's pinstriped suit "not matching." (it didn't.)

3) playing a song from the sondheim musical sunday in the park with george for another teammate after a meeting. (what can i say? i was a theatre major. sondheim is a genius. and the other teammate and i both saw the show in london and he had inquired about the soundtrack earlier in the week)

4) i know there are more small things...i don't remember them, but apparently they have been "recorded" for future use. (whatever)


guess we'll have to wait and see the verdict.



ps.. has anyone else been "forced" to migrate to blogger beta? i was and i am not happy about it.



* - this is a lie. memphis, at least in february, sucks.

so, what's next?

so, what will a post-1/31 world look like?

i guess only time will tell. but i would imagine that these young punks who run around scaring the bejeezus out of the "squares" will eventually get bored with their burn-out existence and start actually contributing to society.

until then, here's a new headline:

"Boston scare case could be hard to prove"


shocker.

you mean, it's gonna be HARD to prove that these two artists INTENDED to terrify a city with harmless lighted cartoon figures? what is wrong with our justice system?

anyone wanna guess whether, in their blind ambition, the prosecutors might just spend more than the $1 million TBS had to pay back to the city of boston on a frivilous case that will lead nowhere?

just a thought.