academy award predictions '07
it's that time again.
UPDATE: CORRECT - INCORRECT
what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. unlike past years, i am so certain of this year's picks that i will buy each of my readers a puppy* for every category i manage to "mis-predict." sit back and enjoy the wonderment. and in case you were wondering just how many times i am going to type out borat: cultural learnings of america for make benefit glorious nation of kazakhstan in it's entirety, the answer is: one.
NEW THIS YEAR: the official "will win" and "my pick" tallies have been unceremoniously abolished. this year, you simply get my take on the category and who will, without a shadow of a doubt, win it.
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor - i will avoid my sentimental favorite, alan "how have i not won an oscar yet" arkin. i love everything he does and sunshine is far from an exception. i would love it but i don't think he will win. it's a two horse race in my book between marky mark and axl foley. but, while wahlberg certainly shined in a movie filled with knock-out performances, the academy loves a comeback. murphy will, though somewhat undeservedly (for me anyway), walk away with the statue.
winner: eddie murphy; dreamgirls (idiot!!) (but yay!)
supporting actress - a 10-year-old, a japanese deaf-mute, a mexican nanny and cate blanchett. certainly all deserving (especially kikuchi in babel; my darkhorse..if i had those) but none will topple the american idol-reject-turned-diva found in hudson. say what you want, sister flat out rocked. you go, girl. wow, i apologize for that.
winner: jennifer hudson; dreamgirls (woo hoo!!)
actor - i saw ZERO of the movies nominated. all i have is the buzz. that most precious of all intangibles. and despite what certain neighbors of this blog say, the winner will, unquestionably and beyond any doubt be the ever-deserving, leonardo dicaprio.
just kidding.
winner: forest whitaker; the last king of scotland (woo hoo!!)
actress - as much as i love seeing meryl, kate and dame judy get nominated for ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING THEY EVER DO, and since penélope cruz is still weird to me, this would tend to be a lock of a category. all hail the queen.
winner: helen mirren; the queen (woo hoo!!)
director - for the love of all that is good and holy (not to mention raw and bloody) in the universe, just give marty the damn statue.
winner: matrin scorcese; the departed (woo hoo!!)
picture - don't be surprised if little miss sunshine pulls a "shakespeare in love" and upsets the whole balance of the universe. but i am a realist, so i will take the (hopefully) safe road.
winner: the departed (woo hoo!!)
cinematography - and this year's heavyweight battle category goes to...achievment in cinematography. i only saw two of these and honestly would not be surprised if i missed the best. dahlia intrigued the heck out of me, but that kind of stylized hollywood is far from original. the prestige and the illusionist both looked great, but the race comes down to pan's labyrinth and children of men. and given the accolades it has already received this year, i will give children the edge.
winner: emmanuel lubezki; children of men (idiot!!)
art direction - (n) - a dumb question or response. something one shouldn't even have to think about. - urbandictionary.com's definition of "no brainer."
winner: eugenio caballero & pilar revuelta; pan's labyrinth (woo hoo!!)
animated feature - crushingly dissappointed that everyone's hero wasn't nominated, i'm going to have to go with pixar. they deserve to win one of these years. besides, who ISN'T sick of penguins?
winner: cars (idiot!!)
animated short - a down year compared to the last few...stylistically anyway. we have three cgi standards, one beautifully hand drawn heartstring tugger and one that just looks like it should be on saturday morning after arthur. with a lack of edgy style this year the question is do the always humorous antics of cgi animals (ice age's scrat in no time for nuts) win out over simple stories of hope (the little matchgirl)? not really sure. but for brevity sake, i will say "no."
winner: the little matchgirl (idiot!!)
live action short - trust me on this one, guys. i am an expert.
winner: éramos pocos (idiot!!)
foreign language film - i have gone this far without a major upset, so here goes. pan's labyrinth may have gotten the exposure, but lives has the kind of pre-reunification-berlin human drama that creatures who see through their hands just can't match.
winner: the lives of others; germany (woo hoo!!)
documentary feature - i'm just speculating here. we have a hollywood with an obvious liberal bent and a environmental doc sporting an obvious liberal agenda? easy pick. worth it entirely if al gore gets to deliver an acceptance speech. oh, the comedy.
winner: an inconvenient truth (woo hoo!!)
documentary short - AIDS is depressing. trash is fun. look for recycled life to edge the blood of yingzhou district...or not. whatever.
winner: recycled life (idiot!!)
costume design - i don't really care this year. it strikes me that a movie about fashion is just too easy of a target. i like the chinese stuff usually, but have heard very little about golden flower as far as costumes. let's just go with the big, fluffy period piece.
winner: milena canonero; marie antionette (woo hoo!!)
make-up - click?!?! hahaha! see 'art direction' above.
winner: david martí & montse ribé; pan's labyrinth (woo hoo!!)
original score - while thomas newman has been criminally overlooked for years, i have a feeling that the good german won't be his meal ticket. i hope i am wrong (hey, if marty can shake it this year, why not?) two other favorites of mine, phillip glass (notes on a scandal) and gustavo santolalla (babel) are also in the running but i have the feeling that the whimsical and solid score from the queen will take this one.
winner: alexandre desplat; the queen (idiot!!)
original song - with the absence of a power house like "it's hard out here for a pimp" this year, there is really only one question to ask: if you tend to cancel yourself out if you get nominated twice in the same category, what happens when you get nominated THREE times? my guess is, you win.
winner: "listen" from dreamgirls (idiot!!)
film editing - NOT flags of our fathers that's for dang sure. to me, this is a toss up as i only saw two of the films. none of them would surprise me, i have to pick one, so i will go with the one with the multiple storylines. that's always tricky to pull off.
winner: stephen mirrione & douglas crise; babel (idiot!!)
sound editing leave it to the academy to overlook real quality work for some overblown popcorn movie. not saying pirates isn't deserving, but anyone who saw letters from iwo jima on the big screen knows that bombs echoing off of cliffs beats swords clanging any day.
winner: letters from iwo jima (woo hoo!!)
sound mixing - i'm telling you, people, despite what king kong had to say about it last year, musicals or musically themed movies should alway be considered the front runners in this category. stupid monkey.
winner: dreamgirls (woo hoo!!)
visual effects superman was "eh." poseidon was...not seen by me. that leaves pirates:dmc. i'm okay with that winning.
winner: pirates of the caribbean: dead man's chest (woo hoo!!)
adapted screenplay - still scratching my head to figure out how a mostly (albeit brilliantly) improvised film such as borat counts as "adapted," and while i do hear great things about children of men, i didn't see it, so i'll stick with the odds-on favorite. but just you watch, notes on a scandal will pull the upset despite what i say.
winner: william monahan; the departed (woo hoo!!)
original screenplay perhaps some of my japanese-speaking friends or more proficient spanish speakers (or both? hello, ryan) could help me out with letters from iwo jima or pan's labyrinth (as well as most of babel for that matter) as far as the dialogue in them goes. but if we are looking at story and character development, nothing will top my favorite movie of last year. it may have been at times cliche or slightly corny...but it was entirely human in it's beauty and brokeness. besides, any time a first timer can win...a little bit of hope rises up in hearts of all the struggling writers out there.
winner: michael arndt; little miss sunshine (woo hoo!!)
misc thoughts:
-i'm unashamedly okay with ellen hosting.
-i saw a lot of movies this year and still feel woefully underprepared.
-i really am just not that excited about this year. i hope it's at least entertaining.
that's it. i can't think of anything else to say. i'll be taping the amazing race if anyone wants to join me afterward. peace. and as always, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* = this guarantee will NOT be honored. puppies are smelly and lame.
UPDATE: CORRECT - INCORRECT
what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. unlike past years, i am so certain of this year's picks that i will buy each of my readers a puppy* for every category i manage to "mis-predict." sit back and enjoy the wonderment. and in case you were wondering just how many times i am going to type out borat: cultural learnings of america for make benefit glorious nation of kazakhstan in it's entirety, the answer is: one.
NEW THIS YEAR: the official "will win" and "my pick" tallies have been unceremoniously abolished. this year, you simply get my take on the category and who will, without a shadow of a doubt, win it.
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor - i will avoid my sentimental favorite, alan "how have i not won an oscar yet" arkin. i love everything he does and sunshine is far from an exception. i would love it but i don't think he will win. it's a two horse race in my book between marky mark and axl foley. but, while wahlberg certainly shined in a movie filled with knock-out performances, the academy loves a comeback. murphy will, though somewhat undeservedly (for me anyway), walk away with the statue.
winner: eddie murphy; dreamgirls (idiot!!) (but yay!)
supporting actress - a 10-year-old, a japanese deaf-mute, a mexican nanny and cate blanchett. certainly all deserving (especially kikuchi in babel; my darkhorse..if i had those) but none will topple the american idol-reject-turned-diva found in hudson. say what you want, sister flat out rocked. you go, girl. wow, i apologize for that.
winner: jennifer hudson; dreamgirls (woo hoo!!)
actor - i saw ZERO of the movies nominated. all i have is the buzz. that most precious of all intangibles. and despite what certain neighbors of this blog say, the winner will, unquestionably and beyond any doubt be the ever-deserving, leonardo dicaprio.
just kidding.
winner: forest whitaker; the last king of scotland (woo hoo!!)
actress - as much as i love seeing meryl, kate and dame judy get nominated for ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING THEY EVER DO, and since penélope cruz is still weird to me, this would tend to be a lock of a category. all hail the queen.
winner: helen mirren; the queen (woo hoo!!)
director - for the love of all that is good and holy (not to mention raw and bloody) in the universe, just give marty the damn statue.
winner: matrin scorcese; the departed (woo hoo!!)
picture - don't be surprised if little miss sunshine pulls a "shakespeare in love" and upsets the whole balance of the universe. but i am a realist, so i will take the (hopefully) safe road.
winner: the departed (woo hoo!!)
cinematography - and this year's heavyweight battle category goes to...achievment in cinematography. i only saw two of these and honestly would not be surprised if i missed the best. dahlia intrigued the heck out of me, but that kind of stylized hollywood is far from original. the prestige and the illusionist both looked great, but the race comes down to pan's labyrinth and children of men. and given the accolades it has already received this year, i will give children the edge.
winner: emmanuel lubezki; children of men (idiot!!)
art direction - (n) - a dumb question or response. something one shouldn't even have to think about. - urbandictionary.com's definition of "no brainer."
winner: eugenio caballero & pilar revuelta; pan's labyrinth (woo hoo!!)
animated feature - crushingly dissappointed that everyone's hero wasn't nominated, i'm going to have to go with pixar. they deserve to win one of these years. besides, who ISN'T sick of penguins?
winner: cars (idiot!!)
animated short - a down year compared to the last few...stylistically anyway. we have three cgi standards, one beautifully hand drawn heartstring tugger and one that just looks like it should be on saturday morning after arthur. with a lack of edgy style this year the question is do the always humorous antics of cgi animals (ice age's scrat in no time for nuts) win out over simple stories of hope (the little matchgirl)? not really sure. but for brevity sake, i will say "no."
winner: the little matchgirl (idiot!!)
live action short - trust me on this one, guys. i am an expert.
winner: éramos pocos (idiot!!)
foreign language film - i have gone this far without a major upset, so here goes. pan's labyrinth may have gotten the exposure, but lives has the kind of pre-reunification-berlin human drama that creatures who see through their hands just can't match.
winner: the lives of others; germany (woo hoo!!)
documentary feature - i'm just speculating here. we have a hollywood with an obvious liberal bent and a environmental doc sporting an obvious liberal agenda? easy pick. worth it entirely if al gore gets to deliver an acceptance speech. oh, the comedy.
winner: an inconvenient truth (woo hoo!!)
documentary short - AIDS is depressing. trash is fun. look for recycled life to edge the blood of yingzhou district...or not. whatever.
winner: recycled life (idiot!!)
costume design - i don't really care this year. it strikes me that a movie about fashion is just too easy of a target. i like the chinese stuff usually, but have heard very little about golden flower as far as costumes. let's just go with the big, fluffy period piece.
winner: milena canonero; marie antionette (woo hoo!!)
make-up - click?!?! hahaha! see 'art direction' above.
winner: david martí & montse ribé; pan's labyrinth (woo hoo!!)
original score - while thomas newman has been criminally overlooked for years, i have a feeling that the good german won't be his meal ticket. i hope i am wrong (hey, if marty can shake it this year, why not?) two other favorites of mine, phillip glass (notes on a scandal) and gustavo santolalla (babel) are also in the running but i have the feeling that the whimsical and solid score from the queen will take this one.
winner: alexandre desplat; the queen (idiot!!)
original song - with the absence of a power house like "it's hard out here for a pimp" this year, there is really only one question to ask: if you tend to cancel yourself out if you get nominated twice in the same category, what happens when you get nominated THREE times? my guess is, you win.
winner: "listen" from dreamgirls (idiot!!)
film editing - NOT flags of our fathers that's for dang sure. to me, this is a toss up as i only saw two of the films. none of them would surprise me, i have to pick one, so i will go with the one with the multiple storylines. that's always tricky to pull off.
winner: stephen mirrione & douglas crise; babel (idiot!!)
sound editing leave it to the academy to overlook real quality work for some overblown popcorn movie. not saying pirates isn't deserving, but anyone who saw letters from iwo jima on the big screen knows that bombs echoing off of cliffs beats swords clanging any day.
winner: letters from iwo jima (woo hoo!!)
sound mixing - i'm telling you, people, despite what king kong had to say about it last year, musicals or musically themed movies should alway be considered the front runners in this category. stupid monkey.
winner: dreamgirls (woo hoo!!)
visual effects superman was "eh." poseidon was...not seen by me. that leaves pirates:dmc. i'm okay with that winning.
winner: pirates of the caribbean: dead man's chest (woo hoo!!)
adapted screenplay - still scratching my head to figure out how a mostly (albeit brilliantly) improvised film such as borat counts as "adapted," and while i do hear great things about children of men, i didn't see it, so i'll stick with the odds-on favorite. but just you watch, notes on a scandal will pull the upset despite what i say.
winner: william monahan; the departed (woo hoo!!)
original screenplay perhaps some of my japanese-speaking friends or more proficient spanish speakers (or both? hello, ryan) could help me out with letters from iwo jima or pan's labyrinth (as well as most of babel for that matter) as far as the dialogue in them goes. but if we are looking at story and character development, nothing will top my favorite movie of last year. it may have been at times cliche or slightly corny...but it was entirely human in it's beauty and brokeness. besides, any time a first timer can win...a little bit of hope rises up in hearts of all the struggling writers out there.
winner: michael arndt; little miss sunshine (woo hoo!!)
misc thoughts:
-i'm unashamedly okay with ellen hosting.
-i saw a lot of movies this year and still feel woefully underprepared.
-i really am just not that excited about this year. i hope it's at least entertaining.
that's it. i can't think of anything else to say. i'll be taping the amazing race if anyone wants to join me afterward. peace. and as always, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* = this guarantee will NOT be honored. puppies are smelly and lame.
posted by cade at 7:59 AM
5 Comments:
nice work. hysterical as always. can't believe you wouldn't take Leo for Blood Diamond.
this is that show where they get the glass shard right? or is it the one with the astronaut?
Can't agree MORE with your comment on flags of our fathers (film editing)...knowing what I do about film preparation, I thought they had missed a reel or put them in the wrong order for about 20 minutes of the movie. I was so lost for a while that it pissed me off.
(15 days to selection sunday)
15/24.
pathetic.
No, pathetic is not being in the loop enough to even begin to make guesses beyond the buzz. The only nominees I saw: Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC, The Pursuit of Happyness [sic], The Devil Wears Prada, and Borat (unfortunately). I thought the Fresh Prince would finally get his, but Forrest is a cool cat and I can't deny him his Oscar. Was uber-happy for Alan Arkin, and was pleasantly surprised Germany won best foreign language film over the much-hyped Pan's Labyrinth. I will see both of those eventually.
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