the oscars made easy
what follows are my opinions on all 24 oscar categories. some are fact. some are fancy. all are to be taken seriously. come monday morning, you can all sit back and marvel at how right-on i was. unless, of course, i'm completely wrong. if that's the case, i don't want to hear it.
(warning: does contain possible spoilers regarding million dollar baby and the sea inside)
supporting actor
will win: clive owen; closer
should win: morgan freeman; million dollar baby
note: haven't seen closer but i've done my research.
supporting actress
will win: virginia madsen; sideways
should win: cate blanchett; the aviator
note: academy will reward madsen, deservedly or no, for her 'second coming.'
actor
will win: jamie foxx; ray
should win: jamie foxx; ray
note: as close to a lock as we have this year. deserves to and will win for a stark, moving performance.
actress
will win: hilary swank; million dollar baby
should win: hilary swank; million dollar baby
note: see above note, minus the lock part. annette benning always has the academy eating out of her hand. but, she's not pregnant this year so...it's gonna be '99 all over again.
director
will win: martin scorsese; the aviator
should win: clint eastwood; million dollar baby
note: one of these year, scorsese is going to win for 1980's raging bull. this could be it.
picture
will win: million dollar baby
should win: million dollar baby
note: the most complete and solid of this year's nominees.
cinematography
will win: robert richardson; the aviator
should win: zhao xiaoding; house of flying daggers
note: wanted to go with bruno delbonnel for a very long engagement but i haven't seen it. if it's anything like amelie he deserves it, too.
art direction
will win: dante ferretti; the aviator
should win: dante ferretti; the aviator
note: this is the most open category of the year, in my opinion. don't be surprised if phantom's anthony pratt, makes a trip to the podium.
adapted screenplay
will win: alexander payne & jim taylor; sideways
should win: alexander payne & jim taylor; sideways
note: who isn't in love with that script?
original screenplay
will win: brad bird; the incredibles
should win: charlie kauffman; eternal sunshine of the spotless mind
note: i'm all for giving it to the former the simpsons writer who crafted a funny and surprisingly human tale of cgi superheroes...but how many MORE brilliant scripts does mr. kauffman have to write before they give him the damn statue?! just once! come on!
animated feature
will win: the incredibles
should win: the incredibles
note: shark tale? shrek 2? no contest.
animated short
will win: gopher broke
should win: ryan
note: same old funny cgi (gopher) vs. edgy, depressing pshyco-trip (ryan.) sometimes the academy is just too predictable.
live action short
will win: the little terrorist
should win: two cars, one night
note: terrorist is the only one i know anything about. but, i love the title of two cars. basically. i don't know about this category.
foreign language film
will win: les choristes; france
should win: the sea inside; spain
note: sweet + sappy = oscar. besides, you can't have two movies about euthanasia winning big in one night.
documentary feature
will win: born into brothels
should win: farenheit 9/11...oh wait, that's right. it wasn't nominated! ha ha. michael moore is a fat idiot.
documentary short
will win: autism is a world
should win: sister rose's passion
note: if the passion of the christ is going to get shut out, sister rose should get a shot, right?
costume design
will win: sandy powell; the aviator
should win: colleen atwood; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
note: as long as troy's bob ringwood doesn't win. we can't go on thinking that putting brad pitt in a skirt makes a movie worth seeing.
make-up
will win: valli o'reilly & bill corso; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
should win: valli o'reilly & bill corso; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
note: i really just want to type that title as many times as i can.
original score
will win: jan a.p. kaczmarek; finding neverland
should win: thomas newman; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
note: see above rant about charlie kauffman. in this case, insert the name "thomas newman" for "charlie kauffman" and the word "score" for "script." it's about time he wins something.
original song
will win: "believe" from the polar express
should win: "learn your path" from the phantom of the opera
note: i'm just kidding. andrew lloyd webber should stop writing music NOW. he has lost whatever "touch" he arguably had in the first place. did anyone SEE bombay dreams?
film editing
will win: million dollar baby
should win: ray
note: sorry gentry. flying montage aside, ray was masterfully put together.
sound editing
will win: spiderman 2
should win: the incredibles
note: in my opinion, and animated picture has 2 elements. the animation. and a whole lot of sound to put together. this should earn almost every animated feature a nomination every year.
sound mixing
will win: ray
should win: the aviator
note: music soothes the savage beast. an apparently the academy voter as well.
visual effects
will win: spiderman 2
should win: spiderman 2
note: uh...does the word "no-brainer" mean anything to anyone.
enjoy the show, folks. i'm out.
(warning: does contain possible spoilers regarding million dollar baby and the sea inside)
supporting actor
will win: clive owen; closer
should win: morgan freeman; million dollar baby
note: haven't seen closer but i've done my research.
supporting actress
will win: virginia madsen; sideways
should win: cate blanchett; the aviator
note: academy will reward madsen, deservedly or no, for her 'second coming.'
actor
will win: jamie foxx; ray
should win: jamie foxx; ray
note: as close to a lock as we have this year. deserves to and will win for a stark, moving performance.
actress
will win: hilary swank; million dollar baby
should win: hilary swank; million dollar baby
note: see above note, minus the lock part. annette benning always has the academy eating out of her hand. but, she's not pregnant this year so...it's gonna be '99 all over again.
director
will win: martin scorsese; the aviator
should win: clint eastwood; million dollar baby
note: one of these year, scorsese is going to win for 1980's raging bull. this could be it.
picture
will win: million dollar baby
should win: million dollar baby
note: the most complete and solid of this year's nominees.
cinematography
will win: robert richardson; the aviator
should win: zhao xiaoding; house of flying daggers
note: wanted to go with bruno delbonnel for a very long engagement but i haven't seen it. if it's anything like amelie he deserves it, too.
art direction
will win: dante ferretti; the aviator
should win: dante ferretti; the aviator
note: this is the most open category of the year, in my opinion. don't be surprised if phantom's anthony pratt, makes a trip to the podium.
adapted screenplay
will win: alexander payne & jim taylor; sideways
should win: alexander payne & jim taylor; sideways
note: who isn't in love with that script?
original screenplay
will win: brad bird; the incredibles
should win: charlie kauffman; eternal sunshine of the spotless mind
note: i'm all for giving it to the former the simpsons writer who crafted a funny and surprisingly human tale of cgi superheroes...but how many MORE brilliant scripts does mr. kauffman have to write before they give him the damn statue?! just once! come on!
animated feature
will win: the incredibles
should win: the incredibles
note: shark tale? shrek 2? no contest.
animated short
will win: gopher broke
should win: ryan
note: same old funny cgi (gopher) vs. edgy, depressing pshyco-trip (ryan.) sometimes the academy is just too predictable.
live action short
will win: the little terrorist
should win: two cars, one night
note: terrorist is the only one i know anything about. but, i love the title of two cars. basically. i don't know about this category.
foreign language film
will win: les choristes; france
should win: the sea inside; spain
note: sweet + sappy = oscar. besides, you can't have two movies about euthanasia winning big in one night.
documentary feature
will win: born into brothels
should win: farenheit 9/11...oh wait, that's right. it wasn't nominated! ha ha. michael moore is a fat idiot.
documentary short
will win: autism is a world
should win: sister rose's passion
note: if the passion of the christ is going to get shut out, sister rose should get a shot, right?
costume design
will win: sandy powell; the aviator
should win: colleen atwood; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
note: as long as troy's bob ringwood doesn't win. we can't go on thinking that putting brad pitt in a skirt makes a movie worth seeing.
make-up
will win: valli o'reilly & bill corso; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
should win: valli o'reilly & bill corso; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
note: i really just want to type that title as many times as i can.
original score
will win: jan a.p. kaczmarek; finding neverland
should win: thomas newman; lemony snicket's a series of unfortunate events
note: see above rant about charlie kauffman. in this case, insert the name "thomas newman" for "charlie kauffman" and the word "score" for "script." it's about time he wins something.
original song
will win: "believe" from the polar express
should win: "learn your path" from the phantom of the opera
note: i'm just kidding. andrew lloyd webber should stop writing music NOW. he has lost whatever "touch" he arguably had in the first place. did anyone SEE bombay dreams?
film editing
will win: million dollar baby
should win: ray
note: sorry gentry. flying montage aside, ray was masterfully put together.
sound editing
will win: spiderman 2
should win: the incredibles
note: in my opinion, and animated picture has 2 elements. the animation. and a whole lot of sound to put together. this should earn almost every animated feature a nomination every year.
sound mixing
will win: ray
should win: the aviator
note: music soothes the savage beast. an apparently the academy voter as well.
visual effects
will win: spiderman 2
should win: spiderman 2
note: uh...does the word "no-brainer" mean anything to anyone.
enjoy the show, folks. i'm out.
posted by cade at 7:32 AM
3 Comments:
Since the Oscars do not actually have anything to do with "The Best" in any category 9 out of 10 times, I will not put in what "Should Win" because an understanding of the 6500 people in the Academy helps me realize "should" is not important, but "will" is important. What "should" is usually not nominated.
supporting actor
You will find yourself wrong and pleased at the same time. Freeman.
supporting actress
Again, You will be pleased and wrong. Blanchett, and I will not say that she is undeserving since it is not one of the better performances of her career and others are much better because it does not matter.
Regarding Madsen, you must be kidding. They do not care about a 40 year old former sex symbol who was never a huge star (if she was 60 it would matter).
actor
Of course Foxx will win. What does "deserves to win" mean? Does this mean Giamatti would deserve to lose or Cheadle would deserve to lose. These are apples and oranges and we are unable to truly figure out which is a "better" performance, becoming a historical figure (like Blanchett- which borders on mimicry) or creating a new character?
actress
You are right once again, even though, considering the size of the votership, there could be a serious surprise here. There usually is. If so, Staunton.
director
Although it could happen, I actually think Eastwood will sneak in. I would not even predict this. Too odd of a year. I will decide on Sunday at 6 pm.
Again, there is no "deserve" unless Michel Gondry is involved in the discussion.
picture
While I disagree on its completeness and perfection (Sideways is the most original nominee- and I can think of 3 better movies than it). It should be MDB's year. Considering how mediocre Ray and Aviator were, this should not be hard. Agree.
cinematography
you are correct. This is the 1 deserving nom for Passion.
art direction
Phantom
adapted screenplay
As I will say below once again (doing my comments backwards), go with the best movie in the writing categories, so yes. Sideways. but, do not be suprised by MDB (actually I am leaning that way- I will make a final prediction about 6 pm on Sunday)
original screenplay
Go with your heart, Kaufmann will win. the best film to edgy for a real Oscar usually wins this award.
animated feature
Correct
animated short
good guess. What is fun, if you have not seen them all, is to guess which one as they show a tiny clip. You will never miss it. I am 9 for 10 the last 10 years with this technique on this and a couple of smaller categories.
live action short
You are right to judge by title. Titles always show what will win the minor categories.
foreign language film
Once again, wrong and happy. Sea Inside.
documentary feature
9/11 was not nominated because it was not entered as a documentary. that is all (can't ne nominated in something it is not entered in).
Again, your choice is the safe, it is serious with children involved. However, the popular documentary has been winning for the last few years (not nec. the most serious or best) so I will predict Supersize Me. And where was Control Room?
documentary short
Mighty Times (go with the kids, always, which makes Autism a good bet, but Mighty Times has a longer title). Actually disease is popular too, so you may be right going with kids and disease.
costume design
Oscar loves big epic costumes like troy, but Aviator will pull it out. Correct, but don't be surprised.
make-up
Passion will win in an upset.
original score
considering the lack of big names, correct.
original song
They all suck. But Phantom will win.
film editing
Ray's editing has been done a million times in the same manner, but better. It may be better than some of these year's other nominees, but we have seen it. Soderburgh perfected it years ago. But, it is flashy and showy so it will win.
sound editing
Correct
sound mixing
If they take the simple way out (uh, it has music, so it should win) then you are correct.
visual effects
you are correct
Agree more than I disagree with your predictions. I came here from James' page.
thanks man-
i hope i am "wrong but happy" on most of these as well.
good commetary.
as for "deserves to win." i admit it's a phrase i throw around a little too loosely, but i finished this post at about 1:15 this morning, so there is little in the way of convincing argument.
case in point, virginia madsen. just a gut feeling with nothing to back it up, ya know?
and for farenhiet 9/11. i am aware that it was not entered. THAT is why i think moore is an idiot (among other reasons.) i agree with the popular choice for super size me but i think that some of the others were done better.
also, i love your method for the animated shorts. unfortunately, i signed a pact with myself years ago that, at curtain time, the envelope is sealed and my picks cannot, under any circumstance, be altered. fortunately, i got to see all of the shorts this year.
jamie-
your swearing would be welcome.
feel free to do the same in the event that leo wins. although, life as we know it would cease to exist, so a phone call might be difficult.
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