the writers strike is over...
...and my usual and complete domination of the oscar predictions is only just beginning.
what follows are my opinions on all 24 of this year's oscar categories. join me, won't you, on this journey into perfection. i've seen a good number of the nominees this year so the surprises will be limited. the only true question remaining is now that the writers are back...what are the odds of the horribly-long-and-pointless-montage-makers guild of america going on strike before sunday?
enough of this jibber jabber...on to the picks:
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor - i feel kind of gypped that javier bardem has become SO MUCH of a lock for this category. when i saw no country i had a feeling he would be the favorite for this category. the nightmares i had about him in the months to follow solidified it for me. then everyone else copied me and started the hype machine. but this hype, is completely deserved.
winner: javier bardem; no country for old men CORRECT
supporting actress - i saw 4 of the five performances. the one i didn't see (amy ryan) is favored in many circles. ruby dee is apparently getting the "judy dench" treatment by being nominated for essentially one 3-minute scene in a 2 hour 40 minute movie. only problem is, she's not judy dench. the girl in atonement was good, but she creeped me out. i beleive the race is between ryan and cate blanchett. i'm gonna give the nod to cate on this one...with a caveat: this is the LAST oscar she is allowed to win for playing a real person. i'm gonna need some fictional characters from this point forward. you hear me, cate?
winner: cate blanchett; i'm not there INCORRECT - tilda swinton
actor - as far as i am concerned, daniel day-lewis could have played oil man daniel plainview as a juggling, bagpipe playing ballet dancer and it still would been leaps and bounds ahead of the others. of course, i said the same thing about his portrayal of bill the butcher in gangs of new york, and that turned out to be a filthy lie.
winner: daniel day-lewis; there will be blood CORRECT
actress - with all due respect to julie christie...if cotillard's performance isn't what oscar is looking for...i don't know what is.
winner: marion cotillard; la vie en rose CORRECT
director - i haven't seen that butterfly movie but apparently the guy who directed that did a pretty good job. and i have the utmost respect for p.t. anderson. but it's not often you get to see your idols win the grandest prize of all.
winner: joel and ethan coen; no country for old men CORRECT
picture - for the first time in years...i actually LIKED all of the nominees this year. there are a couple that are better than others, but on the whole, i am not disappointed. that said, i would love to have a clear-cut favorite to win it. all i have is MY favorite.
winner: no country for old men CORRECT
cinematography - i can't pick. don't make me do it. i saw 4 of the noms and i would be happy with any of them. each was spectacular in it's own way. since i am unable to pick, i have decided to rely on the proven scientific process known in some cultures as "eeny-meeny-miney-mo." and in the end, my mother told me to pick the very best one and it was...
winner: roger deakins; no country for old men INCORRECT - there will be blood
art direction - burton's excellent take on the classic sondheim musical has a real shot at getting shut out on oscar night. thanks to the high stylization and stunning use of scarce and contrasting color...i don't think it will.
winner: dante ferretti & francesca lo schiavo; sweeney todd the demon barber of fleet street CORRECT
animated feature - last year, i went with pixar and that penguin movie won. i fully expect that since i am NOT going with pixar this year that brad bird will grab his second statue for ratatouille (rat-a-too-ee). and i won't even mention my disgust at the fact that ANOTHER FREAKIN' penguin movie is in the mix.
winner: persepolis INCORRECT - ratatouille
animated short - même les pigeons vont au paradis made me laugh out loud. but i met the walrus is a hand-drawn short about a kid who met john lennon. ok, you got me.
winner: i met the walrus INCORRECT - peter and the wolf
live action short - haven't seen any of them. only one is in english (my favorite language) and it doesn't hurt that it is based on an elmore leonard short story.
winner: the tonto woman INCORRECT - the mozart of pickpockets
foreign language film - i've heard good things about kaytn, but the counterfeiters is about the holocaust. and oscar LOVES the holocaust.
winner: the counterfeiters; austria CORRECT
documentary feature - i'm never one to take the popular high road when it comes to a pick...but i'm tired.
winner: sicko INCORRECT - taxi to the dark side
documentary short - i tried the mathematical approach last year (ie. trash > AIDS = fun > depressing). so, i will try it again this year: lesbian legal battle > boy with AIDS.
of course, last year, i was wrong.
winner: freeheld CORRECT
costume design - now that i think about it, sweeney todd has a GOOD chance of going 2/3. i mean, i appreciate kiera knightley's costume in atonement's fountain scene as much as the next guy, but i have never been wrong about colleen atwood.
winner: colleen atwood; sweeney todd the demon barber of fleet street INCORRECT - elizabeth: the golden age
make-up - you know what? i'm gonna do it. i don't even care, i'm doing it.
winner: rick baker and kazuhiro tsuji; norbit *
original score - i really enjoyed the throwback brilliance of 3:10 to yuma and apparently the guy who scored michael clayton used to be in toto, but anyone who can use a typewriter as a legitimate musical instrument deserves to win.
winner: dario marianelli; atonement CORRECT
original song - kudos to stephen sondheim for not pandering to the academy and writing an new song for sweeney todd. that said, as of post time, i have not seen the movie that accounts for 60% of this year's nominees. although, i like alan menken and stephen schwartz a lot...i have to go with my sentimental favorite. without "falling slowly," once doesn't happen...and that would have made me very, very sad. besides, that august rush song is awful.
winner: "falling slowly" from once CORRECT
film editing - as much as i would love to see "roderick jaynes" make history, i think action wins out on this night. though i will be completely ok with being wrong.
winner: christopher rouse; the bourne ultimatum CORRECT
sound editing - despite the lack of the classic, original transforming noise from the cartoon, transformers still had some great stuff. soundwave would be proud.
winner: transformers INCORRECT - the bourne ultimatum
sound mixing - with a lack of musicals in this year's race, the real question here is: which is better? isolated and sparse or loud and awesome. personally, i go for the former. but, i don't vote for the academy.
winner: transformers INCORRECT - the bourne ultimatum
visual effects - am i the only one that is getting increasingly bored with this category? either way...here's the hat trick.
winner: transformers INCORRECT - the golden compass
adapted screenplay - if 'adapted' means "truest to the text of the source material," the winner HAS to be no country. the movie follows the pace and interactions of the book with ridiculous accuracy. only departing it toward the end. if it means "capturing the tone of the source material," it ABSOLUTELY HAS to be no country.
winner: joel and ethan coen; no country for old men CORRECT
original screenplay - as i have stated to anyone who would listen to me...i do not think that juno is a fantastic movie. a GOOD movie, yes. but not groundbreaking. the script was quirky and fun but not monumental. i don't want to throw my hat in the "this film is so hip and fresh that you HAVE to talk about how hip and fresh it is" arena, but it's very difficult not to cast a vote for someone named "diablo."
and it's impossible not to cast a vote for a FORMER STRIPPER named diablo.
winner: diablo cody; juno CORRECT
misc thoughts:
- is there a record for the most nominees in a single year that are in french?
- join me in taking a drink for every time the words "strike" or "britney" are uttered
that's it. should be an interesting and entirely too long show. peace. and as always, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* - j/k...i really can't do it. ACTUAL winner: didier lavergne and jan archibald; la vie en rose CORRECT
what follows are my opinions on all 24 of this year's oscar categories. join me, won't you, on this journey into perfection. i've seen a good number of the nominees this year so the surprises will be limited. the only true question remaining is now that the writers are back...what are the odds of the horribly-long-and-pointless-montage-makers guild of america going on strike before sunday?
enough of this jibber jabber...on to the picks:
(warning: contains possible spoilers)
here we go:
supporting actor - i feel kind of gypped that javier bardem has become SO MUCH of a lock for this category. when i saw no country i had a feeling he would be the favorite for this category. the nightmares i had about him in the months to follow solidified it for me. then everyone else copied me and started the hype machine. but this hype, is completely deserved.
winner: javier bardem; no country for old men CORRECT
supporting actress - i saw 4 of the five performances. the one i didn't see (amy ryan) is favored in many circles. ruby dee is apparently getting the "judy dench" treatment by being nominated for essentially one 3-minute scene in a 2 hour 40 minute movie. only problem is, she's not judy dench. the girl in atonement was good, but she creeped me out. i beleive the race is between ryan and cate blanchett. i'm gonna give the nod to cate on this one...with a caveat: this is the LAST oscar she is allowed to win for playing a real person. i'm gonna need some fictional characters from this point forward. you hear me, cate?
winner: cate blanchett; i'm not there INCORRECT - tilda swinton
actor - as far as i am concerned, daniel day-lewis could have played oil man daniel plainview as a juggling, bagpipe playing ballet dancer and it still would been leaps and bounds ahead of the others. of course, i said the same thing about his portrayal of bill the butcher in gangs of new york, and that turned out to be a filthy lie.
winner: daniel day-lewis; there will be blood CORRECT
actress - with all due respect to julie christie...if cotillard's performance isn't what oscar is looking for...i don't know what is.
winner: marion cotillard; la vie en rose CORRECT
director - i haven't seen that butterfly movie but apparently the guy who directed that did a pretty good job. and i have the utmost respect for p.t. anderson. but it's not often you get to see your idols win the grandest prize of all.
winner: joel and ethan coen; no country for old men CORRECT
picture - for the first time in years...i actually LIKED all of the nominees this year. there are a couple that are better than others, but on the whole, i am not disappointed. that said, i would love to have a clear-cut favorite to win it. all i have is MY favorite.
winner: no country for old men CORRECT
cinematography - i can't pick. don't make me do it. i saw 4 of the noms and i would be happy with any of them. each was spectacular in it's own way. since i am unable to pick, i have decided to rely on the proven scientific process known in some cultures as "eeny-meeny-miney-mo." and in the end, my mother told me to pick the very best one and it was...
winner: roger deakins; no country for old men INCORRECT - there will be blood
art direction - burton's excellent take on the classic sondheim musical has a real shot at getting shut out on oscar night. thanks to the high stylization and stunning use of scarce and contrasting color...i don't think it will.
winner: dante ferretti & francesca lo schiavo; sweeney todd the demon barber of fleet street CORRECT
animated feature - last year, i went with pixar and that penguin movie won. i fully expect that since i am NOT going with pixar this year that brad bird will grab his second statue for ratatouille (rat-a-too-ee). and i won't even mention my disgust at the fact that ANOTHER FREAKIN' penguin movie is in the mix.
winner: persepolis INCORRECT - ratatouille
animated short - même les pigeons vont au paradis made me laugh out loud. but i met the walrus is a hand-drawn short about a kid who met john lennon. ok, you got me.
winner: i met the walrus INCORRECT - peter and the wolf
live action short - haven't seen any of them. only one is in english (my favorite language) and it doesn't hurt that it is based on an elmore leonard short story.
winner: the tonto woman INCORRECT - the mozart of pickpockets
foreign language film - i've heard good things about kaytn, but the counterfeiters is about the holocaust. and oscar LOVES the holocaust.
winner: the counterfeiters; austria CORRECT
documentary feature - i'm never one to take the popular high road when it comes to a pick...but i'm tired.
winner: sicko INCORRECT - taxi to the dark side
documentary short - i tried the mathematical approach last year (ie. trash > AIDS = fun > depressing). so, i will try it again this year: lesbian legal battle > boy with AIDS.
of course, last year, i was wrong.
winner: freeheld CORRECT
costume design - now that i think about it, sweeney todd has a GOOD chance of going 2/3. i mean, i appreciate kiera knightley's costume in atonement's fountain scene as much as the next guy, but i have never been wrong about colleen atwood.
winner: colleen atwood; sweeney todd the demon barber of fleet street INCORRECT - elizabeth: the golden age
make-up - you know what? i'm gonna do it. i don't even care, i'm doing it.
winner: rick baker and kazuhiro tsuji; norbit *
original score - i really enjoyed the throwback brilliance of 3:10 to yuma and apparently the guy who scored michael clayton used to be in toto, but anyone who can use a typewriter as a legitimate musical instrument deserves to win.
winner: dario marianelli; atonement CORRECT
original song - kudos to stephen sondheim for not pandering to the academy and writing an new song for sweeney todd. that said, as of post time, i have not seen the movie that accounts for 60% of this year's nominees. although, i like alan menken and stephen schwartz a lot...i have to go with my sentimental favorite. without "falling slowly," once doesn't happen...and that would have made me very, very sad. besides, that august rush song is awful.
winner: "falling slowly" from once CORRECT
film editing - as much as i would love to see "roderick jaynes" make history, i think action wins out on this night. though i will be completely ok with being wrong.
winner: christopher rouse; the bourne ultimatum CORRECT
sound editing - despite the lack of the classic, original transforming noise from the cartoon, transformers still had some great stuff. soundwave would be proud.
winner: transformers INCORRECT - the bourne ultimatum
sound mixing - with a lack of musicals in this year's race, the real question here is: which is better? isolated and sparse or loud and awesome. personally, i go for the former. but, i don't vote for the academy.
winner: transformers INCORRECT - the bourne ultimatum
visual effects - am i the only one that is getting increasingly bored with this category? either way...here's the hat trick.
winner: transformers INCORRECT - the golden compass
adapted screenplay - if 'adapted' means "truest to the text of the source material," the winner HAS to be no country. the movie follows the pace and interactions of the book with ridiculous accuracy. only departing it toward the end. if it means "capturing the tone of the source material," it ABSOLUTELY HAS to be no country.
winner: joel and ethan coen; no country for old men CORRECT
original screenplay - as i have stated to anyone who would listen to me...i do not think that juno is a fantastic movie. a GOOD movie, yes. but not groundbreaking. the script was quirky and fun but not monumental. i don't want to throw my hat in the "this film is so hip and fresh that you HAVE to talk about how hip and fresh it is" arena, but it's very difficult not to cast a vote for someone named "diablo."
and it's impossible not to cast a vote for a FORMER STRIPPER named diablo.
winner: diablo cody; juno CORRECT
misc thoughts:
- is there a record for the most nominees in a single year that are in french?
- join me in taking a drink for every time the words "strike" or "britney" are uttered
that's it. should be an interesting and entirely too long show. peace. and as always, you can't spell 'academy awards' without 'cade.'
* - j/k...i really can't do it. ACTUAL winner: didier lavergne and jan archibald; la vie en rose CORRECT
posted by cade at 10:04 AM
4 Comments:
Wait...you're going to watch the nominated films before making your predictions?? What a novel concept...
I'm exceedingly dismayed that I haven't seen any of the best picture nominees this year. With all that I've read & heard & seen about them, though, I feel like I've seen them. My tendency is 'when in doubt, root for the Coens' but that sentiment is only justified every so often. Here's hoping they win it all, but Oscar has screwed us before...
"- join me in taking a drink for every time the words "strike" or "britney" are uttered"
You'll be drunk.
14/24
certainly not my best, but after only getting 4 of the first 12...i'll take it.
Post a Comment
<< Home